Bitcoin a Ether vykazují odolnost vůči konfliktu na Blízkém východě – Zprávy z trhu

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0838 GMT - Bitcoin and ether edge slightly higher even as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to dampen risk appetite. Bitcoin and ether have showed resilience in recent days to the conflict with both continuing to move sideways, Trade Nation analyst David Morrison says in a note. Bitcoin is holding above the $60,000 support level while meeting resistance at $70,000, he says. The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence for both cryptocurrencies look "quite constructive," having risen from oversold levels, he says. However, bitcoin needs to break convincingly above $70,000 to "really get buyers back on board." Bitcoin rises 1.6% to $69,195, LSEG data show. Ether gains 1.7% to $2,002. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0836 GMT - High oil prices continue to pressure the rupee as the India market returned from a holiday on Tuesday. India and the rupee could be among the most affected by the conflict in the Middle East given the country's status as an oil importer and proximity to Iran, Maybank analysts say. The rupee suffered a sizable drop after oil prices jumped in the wake of the Iran crisis, and remains under pressure as investors move toward safe-haven assets, foreign capital flows out of equities and fears grow that expensive imports will hurt India's trade balance, HDFC Securities says. The rupee is trading near record lows against the dollar, weakening to around 92 against its U.S. counterpart. That will stoke speculation about RBI intervention, though Maybank notes that the central bank seems to have stepped away from intervention without defending 89, 90 or 91 levels more robustly. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0829 GMT - There are signs that the Middle East conflict may have financial repercussions for the region's debt, XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. Chinese investors are planning to scale back exposure to Middle Eastern debt, which is a blow to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the research director says. "Although it is early days into this conflict, it may impact the ambitious economic plans for Saudi," she says. In late February, the Emirate of Abu Dhabi issued $3 billion in 2031- and 2036-dated senior notes. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0825 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields decline in early trade as investors shift focus away from the potential long-term inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict and seek safer assets. Government bond supply will be very light on Wednesday, with only Germany due to sell 1 billion euros in the February 2033-dated green Bund. Ten-year eurozone government bond yields fall by around 1 basis points across the board; Germany's 10-year Bund yield is down by 1.1 basis points at 2.764%, according to Tradeweb. The move in eurozone government bond yield contrast those of U.S. Treasury yields which keep rising, with the 10-year yield last up 2.7 basis points at 4.084%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0825 GMT - Malaysia could garner higher fiscal revenue from stronger crude prices, but structural leakages could limit overall benefits, Kenanga economists say in a note. Oil prices are no longer the main driver of the ringgit, as U.S. dollar strength and subsidy exposure offset commodity gains, they say. Two scenarios dominate: a short disruption could see oil retrace, limiting macro fallout and stabilizing the ringgit. However, a prolonged supply shock pushing oil above $100/bbl could revive global inflation, delay rate cuts by the Fed and structurally strengthen the dollar, potentially slowing Malaysia's growth despite higher petroleum revenue, they add. For now, Kenanga maintains its 2026 GDP growth estimate for Malaysia at 4.5%, its inflation forecast at 1.9% and the end-2026 dollar-ringgit target at 3.95. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0806 GMT - The dollar eases after reaching a three-month high Tuesday. The dollar's rise has been driven by safe-haven flows and higher oil prices stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict. News that President Trump will provide insurance for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and that Gulf regions could retaliate against Iran have improved market sentiment with hopes for an earlier end to the war, Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official John Williams said cooling inflation could allow for more rate cuts in future. Investors are also looking ahead to the ADP private payrolls report at 1315 GMT and ISM services surveyat 1500 GMT. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 98.928, having reached a high of 99.683 Tuesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0755 GMT - Meituan's outlook has been hurt by the ongoing food-delivery subsidy war, according to S&P Global Ratings. "Meituan's ability to defend and grow its market share has declined, in part due to Alibaba's determination to gain a strong presence in the on-demand delivery market," it says. Competition across multiple segments will suppress Meituan's profitability and cash flow generation, it notes. The ratings company lowers its issuer credit rating on Meituan to BBB + from A-. The gloomy outlook suggests that Meituan's profitability could be worse than expected if competition escalates, S&P says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0744 GMT - The immediate takeaway of the Iran crisis for portfolios is that commodities are doing exactly what they're supposed to do in moments like this: providing diversification when traditional assets struggle to price geopolitical risk, says Hakan Kaya at Neuberger Berman. Kaya expects strategic stockpiling across commodities to accelerate. Oil markets had already been tightening on demand growth and disciplined supply, he notes, while gold continues to attract buyers as a store of value and hedge against exactly this type of geopolitical fracture. Copper and other industrial metals keep pricing long-term scarcity on electrification and infrastructure investment. Even if the risk premium fades, the case for broad commodity exposure is intact. "The geopolitical shock reinforces these trends, but it did not create them," he adds. "Scarcity was already the story." (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0705 GMT - The widening Middle East conflict came at the wrong place and time for Australia's inflation outlook, says Sunny Nguyen at Moody's Analytics in a note. The conflict comes just weeks after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 3.85% in response to a sharp pickup in inflation in late 2025, the economist notes. The country's export revenue and government receipts could be boosted by higher global energy prices given Australia is a net energy exporter, but such gains are usually frontloaded and unevenly distributed, she says. Rising energy costs could also seed demand for higher wages, which might stoke services inflation, she adds. A tight labor market with active bargaining rounds could entrench this dynamic. "An open-ended energy shock is the last thing the [RBA] wanted," she says. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0701 GMT - Energy price dynamics continue to dominate bond market moves, with oil and gas prices in the driving seat, says Commerzbank's Hauke Siemssen in a note. "With few distractions on the calendar today, focus looks set to firmly remain on the repercussions of the war in Iran," the rates strategist says. A selloff across German Bunds, U.S. Treasurys and U.K. gilts alongside equities is a pattern that was also observable in the recent crises, as it becomes clear that central banks need to focus on inflation while safe assets are no longer scarce, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0659 GMT - The market is likely to look past China's "noisy" February purchasing managers index print to focus on the coming National People's Congress and geopolitical developments, say Citi economists in a note. While last month's manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs were slightly weaker than expected, their sequential moves were more resilient than in comparable periods when the Lunar New Year fell in mid-February, they say. They expect officials to set a realistic 4.5%-5% growth target backed by measured stimulus at the NPC. "Notably, the domestic policy agenda is not contingent on events in the Middle East," the economists add. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0655 GMT - While bouts of flight to safety pushing government bond yields down is a risk in bond markets, yields in the second quarter are likely to rise on a higher inflation narrative, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Michiel Tukker say in a note. Government bond yields have risen this week as investors focus on the potential inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict. ING doesn't rule out a fall in the 10-year Treasury yield back below 4%, even if only briefly. "But as we look into the second quarter, we anticipate the U.S. 10-year yield to get back up to the 4.3% area (a level that obtained for a period in January)," the senior rates strategists say. That equates to the German 10-year Bund yield getting back up to the 2.9% area, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260304001979:0/