Bitcoin se nachází v "křehké rovnováze" poblíž hranice 75 000 dolarů, přičemž poptávka po ETF zmírňuje tlak na kryptotrhy navzdory napětí v Hormuzském průlivu, uvádějí analytici

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Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $75,200 on Monday, steadying after a weekend pullback as renewed strain around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire rattled oil, equities, and crypto markets alike, yet left the largest digital asset better supported than some traders had expected.

The market mood turned again after hopes of de-escalation gave way to fresh uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.

In a Monday note, QCP Capital said markets had started to lean toward a contained outcome before the weekend headlines snapped that tone, dragging bitcoin back toward $74,000 and ether (ETH) toward $2,300.

Similarly, Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, noted that investors were back to trading headline risk, with oil once again setting the pace for moves across asset classes.

Institutional padding

Even so, bitcoin has not broken down, and some argue that relative firmness is the real story.

Institutional demand has been a major factor for this BTC strength. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in $996.4 million last week, the strongest weekly haul since mid-January, according to earlier reporting by The Block.

The derivatives trading desk of Laser Digital said in a note shared with The Block that institutional demand "held up remarkably well" through last week, with the five-day ETF intake arriving even as the macro backdrop grew more unstable.

The desk added that Ethereum ETFs also posted their strongest single-day inflow of the year on Thursday.

Notable inflows for crypto’s top two assets reinforced the view that traditional finance money has not stepped away from the space, the analysts said.

Fragility remains

Experts say that demand-based resilience matters because the rest of the market setup still looks uneasy.

QCP said implied volatility has been unusually subdued despite the geopolitical turn, suggesting traders are now pricing a conflict that may drag on in bursts rather than erupt into a single decisive shock.

Risk reversals, it noted, have moved only modestly, leaving the market looking more unsure than outright bearish.

Analysts from Laser Digital flagged a similar split in options, with front-end implied volatility firming once bitcoin moved through $76,000 while longer-dated volatility kept fading, flattening the curve.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, argued that bitcoin is sitting in a "fragile equilibrium." In his view, BTC is getting support from stronger institutional flows at the same time that macro pressure is intensifying through higher oil, weaker equity futures, and tighter global risk appetite.

He said bitcoin floats below its True Market Mean, a cost-basis gauge for active investors, and is now roughly 75 days into a negative phase. Bitcoin’s recent drawdown has been milder than past cycle breaks, he said, but the market has not yet fully repaired. Reclaiming that level would mark a more convincing structural turn, per Misir.

Liquidity rotating, not exiting

There is also another buffer underneath price: liquidity has not left crypto, it has shifted inside it.

In a chart shared with The Block, cumulative inflows into Nexo-linked stablecoin balances climbed to about $29.59 billion, while the seven-day moving average of inflows rose from around $8 million in February to roughly $15 million, with peaks above $20 million in early April.

Misir's read is that investors are not fleeing the asset class so much as waiting in cash-like instruments for clearer conditions. The take fits with his broader point that crypto liquidity is being repositioned, not withdrawn.

The bigger change, he said, is that bitcoin no longer trades as a reflexive, retail-led halving story in the old sense.

Instead, it is behaving more like a macro instrument whose timing depends on liquidity cycles, ETF flow regimes, derivatives positioning, and geopolitical shocks.

In that framework, the halving still matters, but less as a near-term clock than as part of a longer supply backdrop.

This shift appears to have shown up again this week.

Early gains tied to ceasefire optimism were later reversed not only by renewed tension around the Strait, but also by fallout from the KelpDAO exploit, which Laser Digital said stirred fresh concern around bad debt and trust inside the sector.

Even with that reversal, the desk noted bitcoin still finished last week up about 5%, a respectable outcome given the wider backdrop.

The immediate test now is whether flows can keep offsetting macro shocks. Another strong ETF week would help absorb supply and keep bitcoin's floor intact. Conversely, a renewed slide in flows would leave the market more exposed to oil, rates, and whatever headline lands next out of the Middle East.

Bitcoin is not trading like a market in full retreat in the interim, multiple analysts agree. Instead, it is trading like one under pressure, with real money still showing up.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/the_block:5f84d8f85094b:0-bitcoin-holds-fragile-equilibrium-near-75k-as-etf-demand-cushions-crypto-market-despite-hormuz-tensions-analysts/