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Bitcoin
BTCUSD
starts the third week of March fighting for a breakout after a trip to near $75,000.

BTC price action delivers a strong weekly close, but bulls have a lot of work left to do.

Analysis warns that the Bitcoin bear market is still in place, along with a recent death cross.

Macro conditions present multiple volatility catalysts as the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision nears.

Gold’s comparative weakness in recent weeks is fueling the Bitcoin rotation debate.

Multiple market signals are giving cause to reevaluate future price strength.

Traders stay wary as bulls face $75,000 sellers

Bitcoin bulls stepped in toward the weekly close to deliver a push to $74,425 — a level that marked new six-week highs.

Data from TradingView shows the price is still maintaining $70,000 as the TradFi trading week gets underway.

The weekly close finally gave
BTCUSD
a chance to reclaim key trend lines: the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,300 and its 2021 record high at $69,400.

Now, the price is also back above its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-January.

“Dips being bought continuously. Another continued squeeze up seems likely to me,” independent analyst Filbfilb wrote in a post on his Telegram channel about the 50-day reclaim.

Bulls’ next target, trader CrypNuevo and others say, is the $75,000 zone — home to major seller interest.
CrypNuevo warned that any changes to the macro scenario that imply the end of the Israel-Iran war could result in a “pump and dump” setup where the market initially surges higher, only to give back most or all of its gains, trapping late long positions.

Skepticism characterized many market takes on the day, with trader Killa seeing little reason to shift from a bearish perspective.
Trader and analyst Mark Cullen, meanwhile, demanded that the BTC price clear its swing low from April 2025 around $75,000.

“Lose 71K now and range lows are coming!” he warned X followers.

BTC price death cross implications linger

As Cointelegraph continues to report, long-term market consensus remains hawkish on BTC price action, with calls for new macro lows still present.

Bitcoin thus needs to deliver clear signs of strength before its rebound can be trusted, analysis warns.

Last week, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, flagged a recent death cross on the
BTCUSD
weekly chart as a key reason to expect those new lows to play out.

“As we sit right now on this very day, we are still in a bear market, and this death cross specifically gives me more confidence in the idea that price is likely, at a macro level, to at least go back and test support before a breakout here,” he said in video analysis.

The support in question could be the local range lows near $60,000, he suggested, or even the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $58,900. The latter option would mark a new lower low — something that “often leads to new lower lows.”

“And we could chop here all month, but don’t forget — don’t turn a blind eye to this structure and to this 200-week moving average,” Alan stressed.

What could change the status quo, he added, is a reversal on lower time frames first, with a “decisive uptick” for the 21-day SMA.

Macro volatility risks multiply for Bitcoin

Multiple volatility catalysts make for a tense but exciting macro week to come.

Against the backdrop of the US and Israel-Iran war, US inflation concerns are back as oil spikes and the Federal Reserve is tasked with its next decision on changes to core interest rates.

Markets remain fixed on the fate of the global oil trade, with US President Donald Trump hinting at a possible easing of the Strait of Hormuz blockade at the weekend.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that “the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — A LOT!”

“The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well,” he pledged.

WTI oil opened the week above the $100 mark, while Bitcoin rose with US stocks futures as TradFi traders returned.

“We now have the Iran war, inflation data, and a Fed meeting all in the same week,” trading resource the Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.

Those inflation prints will come thick and fast, with the latest Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) due on Monday.

This currently shows US manufacturing back in expansion mode, and February’s print triggered a bullish response from Bitcoin price action.

“If energy prices remain elevated, manufacturers may have little choice but to pass costs on to retailers and consumers,” Kobeissi commented on the topic.

“The manufacturing recovery is alive, but the inflation threat seems to be back.”

Elsewhere, Wednesday will see both the Fed's rate decision and the next release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), providing more insight into US inflation trends as the Middle East debacle continues.

As Cointelegraph reported, oil prices in particular have sparked warnings over a major inflation rebound coming next.

Gold rolls over as Bitcoin rebounds

With oil slowly retargeting recent highs above $120, Bitcoin market participants are keen to see BTC take over from gold as a destination for capital during uncertainty.

This has so far failed to materialize, with the past six months marked by successive gold breakouts while
BTCUSD
plumbs multiyear lows.

Despite the Iran war offering an ideal use case for gold as a safe haven, the precious metal has so far offered a muted response.

“Gold has been consolidating over the past two weeks - even though the escalating Iran conflict would typically be expected to drive prices higher,” analyst Lukas Kuemmerle wrote in his latest “Commodity Report” newsletter.

“The metal’s muted reaction has left many market participants puzzled.”

Kuemmerle described gold’s performance during military conflicts as “mixed,” suggesting that oil was the more suitable hedge.

“Gold offers less protection against the conflict itself, but rather against its monetary and financial side effects - think inflationary pressure, currency devaluation, or fiscal dislocations,” he added.

XAU/USD dipped below the $5,000 mark to start the week, hitting its lowest levels since mid-February. Against Bitcoin, gold dropped to levels not seen since Feb. 5.

At the weekend, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe again flagged an emerging bullish divergence in relative strength index (RSI) readings for BTC/XAU.

“The weekly RSI remains to be in the oversold territory. Historically, especially in 2015, 2018 and 2022, this has provided a signal that the markets are bottoming and that there's a reversal happening,” he told X followers.

Van de Poppe said that the daily chart was already giving clues about what was to come, having already forecast capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin.

“I would assume we'll see a stronger breakout upwards occur in the coming week, as this is the first time it's breaking above the 21-Day MA since the breakdown in October,” he added, referring to the pair’s 21-day simple moving average trend line.

The most bullish charts in months?

Continuing the discussion of capital flows, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant sees signs of a broader Bitcoin market recovery.

Inflows to both exchanges and the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), it says, show increasingly bullish patterns, while stablecoin liquidity is increasing — another key driver of market expansion.

“3 different charts are showing activity we haven’t seen in weeks or even months,” contributor Amr Taha summarized in a QuickTake blog post on Monday.

Taha noted that flows from both retail and whale wallets to Binance have “dropped significantly” on rolling 30-day time frames. Whale inflows, for example, fell from $8.8 billion to $4.5 billion in the first two weeks of March.

“Such declines in exchange inflows historically reduce selling pressure, since fewer coins are available on spot markets,” he commented.

At the same time, the US spot ETFs have seen net inflows every trading day since March 9.

At the same time, the US spot ETFs have seen net inflows every trading day since March 9.

“Positive ETF flows reflect direct BTC buying pressure, reinforcing market support from institutional investors,” CryptoQuant continued.

On March 11, meanwhile, a $1 billion minting of the largest stablecoin USDt (USDT) on the Tron network occurred in a significant liquidity event.

“The previous mint event of the same size took place on February 6, which means the March 11 issuance represents the first major liquidity expansion in over a month,” Taha noted.

“The creation of new USDT can signal fresh capital entering the market, potentially increasing available liquidity for trading activity.”

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:f888d05ac094b:0-58k-btc-price-still-in-play-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week/